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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest shock.

Yet the current field is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers improving collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun year, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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